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Hitting record highs: Is the market really that expensive?
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Hitting record highs: Is the market really that expensive?

Topics:
Investments & Portfolio Management
Published:
July 22, 2026

Over the last few years, we have endured a global pandemic, the aggressive rate hikes of 2022, First Republic and Silicon Valley Bank blow-up, and successive geopolitical crises spanning Ukraine, Israel, and now Iran. Common sense might suggest hunkering down and avoiding risk. Yet, even with expectations of "higher for longer" interest rates, credit spreads remain near all-time tights, and the market continues to shatter record highs.

This resilience forces a critical question: Is the stock market simply too expensive?

A deeper look at the underlying data reveals a very different reality than what the media is telling you:

  • The growth is broadening: The narrative that only the "Magnificent 7" tech giants are keeping the market afloat is outdated. The median stock is now recovering and seeing its strongest EPS growth in four years. In fact, during the first quarter of 2026, the Russell 3000 Median Stock EPS growth reached an impressive 10%.
  • Valuations are actually compressing: Paradoxically, as the market climbs, it is fundamentally getting cheaper. Strong earnings continue to drive the S&P 500 higher despite a pullback in valuations. Because next-twelve-month (NTM) EPS estimates have surged throughout 2026, the NTM Price-to-Earnings (PE) multiple has noticeably compressed. Even high-flyers like Nvidia are currently trading at valuation multiples unseen since before the AI boom began.
  • Unprecedented earnings power: Consensus estimates show 2026 EPS growth tracking at an incredible 20%+, with 2027 growth remaining strong at mid-teens growth. This robust, unprecedented earnings rebound is the genuine engine beneath the market's current momentum.
  • A tidal wave of liquidity: We are currently witnessing generation-defining wealth creation through the IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. As these new tech millionaires and billionaires seek to diversify their massive holdings, a significant portion of this liquidity is poised to pour right back into the broader public markets.

So, is the market still expensive, as broadcast by the media?

Are you positioned for reality, or just the headlines?

Contact the Farther Institutional team today to discuss how we are navigating these historical distortions for our institutional clients' portfolios.

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Author

Sutanto Widjaja
Chief Investment Officer, Farther Institutional

With over 20 years of asset management experience, including almost almost two decades serving institutions and around five years serving high-net-worth families, Sutanto applies his expertise on capital preservation and risk-controlled approach to managing portfolios.

He previously worked as a Co-Portfolio Manager for TIAA-Nuveen, where he managed multi-asset portfolios for large institutions. Following TIAA-Nuveen, Sutanto co-founded IndiCo Capital, where he continued to serve high-net-worth individuals and families. Dedicated to giving back, he currently sits on the Investment Committees of the University of Hawaii Foundation and the Honolulu Museum of Art, where he advises on endowment portfolios.

Sustanto currently lives in the San Francisco Bay Area. His main hobby, outside of investment, is dog showing – he owns five Whippets!

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